（翻译）2016美国数学建模MCM F题（政策）翻译:难民移民政策建模

PROBLEM
F:Modeling Refugee Immigration Policies

With hundreds of thousands of refugees moving across Europe and more arriving each day, considerable attention has been given to refugee integration policies and practices in many countries and regions. History
has shown us that mass fleeing of populations occur as a result of major political and social unrest and warfare. These crises bring a set of unique challenges that must be managed carefully through effective policies. Events in the Middle East have caused
a massive surge of refugees emigrating from the Middle East into safe haven countries in Europe and parts of Asia, often moving through the Mediterranean and into countries such as Turkey, Hungary, Germany, France, and UK. By the end of October 2015, European
countries had received over 715,000 asylum applications from refugees. Hungary topped the charts with nearly 1,450 applications per 100,000 inhabitants, but with only a small percentage of those requests granted (32% in 2014), leaving close to a thousand refugees
homeless per every 100K residents of the country. Europe has established a quota system where each country has agreed to take in a particular number of refugees, with the majority of the resettlement burden lying with France and Germany.

The refugees travel multiple routes – from the Middle East through (1) West Mediterranean, (2) Central Mediterranean, (3) Eastern Mediterranean, (4) West Balkans, (5) Eastern Borders, and (6) Albania to Greece
(See these routes mapped out in http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911). Each route has different levels of safety and accessibility, with the most popular route being Eastern Mediterranean and the most dangerous, Central Mediterranean. Countries that
have been burdened the most are concerned about their capacity to provide resources for the refugees such as food, water, shelter, and healthcare. There are numerous factors that determine how the refugees decide to move through the region. Transportation
availability, safety of routes and access to basic needs at destination are considered by each individual or family in this enormous migration.

The UN has asked your team, the ICM-RUN (RefUgee aNalytics) to help develop a better understanding of the factors involved with facilitating the movement of refugees from their countries of origin into safe-haven
countries.

Your Specific Tasks:

1. Metrics of refugee crises. Determine the specific factors which can either enable or inhibit the safe and efficient movement of refugees. There are attributes of the individuals themselves, the routes they
must take, the types of transportation, the countries’ capacity, including number of entry points and resources available to refugee population. This first task requires ICM-RUN to develop a set of measures and parameters and justify why they should be included
in the analysis of this crisis.

2. Flow of refugees. Create a model of optimal refugee movement that would incorporate projected flows of refugees across the six travel routes mentioned in the problem, with consideration of transportation routes/accessibility,
safety of route and countries’ resource capacities. You can include different routes, different entry points, single or multiple entry points, and even different countries. Use the metrics that you established in Task 1 to determine the number of refugees,
as well as the rate and point of entry necessary to accommodate their movement. Be sure to justify

any new elements you have added to the migration and explain the sensitivities of your model to these dynamics.

3. Dynamics of the crisis. Refugee conditions can change rapidly. Refugees seek basic necessities for themselves and their families in the midst of continuously changing political and cultural landscapes. In
addition, the capacity to house, protect, and feed this moving population is dynamic in that the most desired destinations will reach maximum capacity the quickest, creating a cascade effect altering the parameters for the patterns of movement. Identify the
environmental factors that change over time; and show how capacity can be incorporated into the model to account for these dynamic elements. What resources can be prepositioned and how should they be allocated in light of these dynamics? What resources need
priority and how do you incorporate resource availability and flow in your model? Consider the role and resources of both government and non-government agencies (NGOs). How does the inclusion of NGO’s change your model and strategy?

Also consider the inclusion
of other refugee destinations such as Canada, China, and the United States. Does your model work for these regions as well?

4. Policy to support refugee model. Now that you have a working model, ICM-RUN has been asked to attend a policy strategy meeting where your team is asked to write a report on your model and propose a set of
policies that will support the optimal set of conditions ensuring the optimal migration pattern. Your UN commission has asked you to consider and prioritize the health and safety of refugees and of the local populations. You can include as many parameters
and considerations as you see fit to help to inform the strategic policy plan, keeping in mind the laws and cultural constraints of the effected countries. Consider also the role and actions of non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

5. Exogenous events. In addition to endogenous systemic dynamics, exogenous events are also highly likely to occur and alter the situation parameters in these volatile environments, For example, a major terrorist
attack in Paris, France has been linked to the Syrian refuge crisis, and has resulted in substantial shifts in the attitudes and policies of many European countries with respect to refugees. The event has also raised concerns among local populations. For example,
Brussels, Belgium was placed in a lockdown after the Paris raids in attempts to capture possible terrorists.

a) What parameters of the model would likely shift or change completely in a major exogenous event?

b) What would be the cascading effects on the movement of refugees in neighboring countries?

c) How will the immigration policies that you recommend be designed to be resilient to these types of events?

6. Scalability. Using your model, expand the crisis to a larger scale – by a factor of 10. Are there features of your model that are not scalable to larger populations? What parameters in your model change or
become irrelevant when the scope of the crisis increases dramatically?

Do new parameters need to be added? How does this increase the time required to resolve refugee placement? If resolution of the refugee integration is significantly prolonged, what new
issues might arise in maintaining the health and safety of the refugee and local populations? What is the threshold of time where these new considerations are in play?

For example, what policies need to be in place to manage issues such as disease control,
childbirth, and education?

The Report: The UN Commission on Refugees has asked your ICM-RUN team to provide them a 20-page report that considers the factors given in your tasks. Each team should also write a 1 page policy recommendation
letter which will be read by the UN Secretary General and the Chief of Migration.

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet, a 1 page letter to the UN, and your solution (not to exceed 20 pages) for a maximum of 22 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward
the 22 page limit.

The Commission has also provided you with some on-line references that may be helpful:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

http://www.iom.int/

http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90854

http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c4d6.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/world/migrants-refugees-europe-syria.html?

_r=0

http://www.who.int/features/qa/88/en/

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/migration-and-health/migrant-health-in-the-european-region/migration-and-health-key-issues

https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/refugees-displaced-persons

F:   随着难民数十万运动在欧洲和每天多到达，相当多的关注已在多个国家和地区给予难民融合的政策和做法。

历史告诉我们，人口大规模逃离发生的重大政治和社会动荡和战争的结果。

这些危机带来的一组必须细致通过有效的政策来管理的独特挑战。在中东地区发生的事件所造成的难民从中东移民到避风港的国家在欧洲和亚洲部分地区的大量激增，穿过地中海。进入国家，如土耳其，匈牙利，德国，法国和英国常常移动。

到2015年10月月底，欧洲各国已收到的难民超过715000庇护申请。

匈牙利荣登榜首，每10万居民中近1450应用程序，但授予这些请求的仅仅有一小部分（2014年32％），剩下接近千难民每每10万居民的全国无家可归。欧洲已经建立了配额制度。当中每一个国家已允许接受难民的特定号码，与广大的安置负担躺在法国和德国。

难民旅行多条路线 - 从中​​东到（1）西地中海（2）地中海中部，（3）东地中海。（4）西巴尔干。（5）东部边界。以及（6）阿尔巴尼亚希腊（见这些路由映射出http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911）。每条路线都有不同程度的安全性和可訪问性，与最流行的路线是东地中海和最危急的。环地中海。

已经背负了大多数国家都关心自己的能力，提供资源，难民，如食品，水，住所和医疗保健。

有迹象表明。决定难民怎样决定将通过该区域诸多因素。交通运输可用性，路线和基本需求在目的地的安全是由每一个个人或家庭在这个巨大的迁移考虑。

联合国已经要求你的团队。ICM-RUN（难民分析），以帮助更好地了解參与协助难民从原籍国运动进入而且採取措施避风港国家的因素。

您的详细任务：

1.度量难民危机。

确定详细的因素。能够同意或阻止难民的安全，高效执行。有个人的属性本身。他们必须採取的路线。交通的种类。这些国家的能力，包括的入口点和提供给难民人口资源数。这第一个任务须要ICM-RUN制定了一整套措施和參数，并证明为什么他们应该包括在本次危机的分析。

2.流量难民。

创建最佳的难民运动。这将使难民投影在整个流动问题中提到的六个旅游线路，并考虑交通干线/交通方便，路线安全和国家资源能力的典范。能够包含不同的路线，不同的切入点，单个或多个入口点。甚至不同的国家。使用在任务1成立来确定的难民人数，以及速率和点必要的条目。以适应他们的运动的度量。一定要证明



不论什么新的元素已加入到迁移。并解释模型的敏感性这些动态。

3. 危机动态。

难民条件能够迅速改变。难民寻求基本必需品自己和家人在不断变化的政治和文化景观之中。

此外，安置，保护和满足这样的运动的人口容量是动态的。最想要的目的地将达到最大容量的最快。创造一个连带效应改变參数的运动模式。确定随时间变化的环境因素;并展示怎样容量可并入该模型以考虑这些动态元素。什么资源能够预置和他们应该怎样分配依据这些动态？哪些资源须要优先级，你怎么把资源的可用性和流动模型中的？同一时候考虑政府和非政府机构（非政府组织）的作用和资源。怎样纳入非政府组织的改变你的模式和战略？另外还要考虑纳入其它难民的目的地。如加拿大，中国和美国。请问您的模型，这些地区以及工作？

4.政策支持难民模型。如今你有一个工作模型，ICM-RUN被要求參加一个政策战略会议，你的团队被要求写一篇关于你的模型报告，并提出一套政策，将支持条件的最佳设置，确保最佳的迁移模式。

你的联合国人权委员会已要求你考虑并优先考虑难民和当地居民的健康和安全。

您觉得合适的帮助，告知战略政策计划，同一时候考虑受影响国家的法律和文化的限制，你能够包括尽可能多的參数和注意事项。想想也是的作用和非政府组织（NGO）的行为。

5.外部事件。除了内源性系统性动力学，外部事件也极有可能发生，并改变在这些挥发性环境的状况的參数，比如，在巴黎重大恐怖突击，法国已与叙利亚避难危机，并也导致大量在态度的变化和很多欧洲国家的政策相对于难民。

该事件也引起当地居民的担忧。比如。比利时布鲁塞尔置于锁定在巴黎突击后试图捕捉到可能的恐怖分子。

一）将可能移位或在一个基本的外界事件全然改变什么模型的參数？

二）什么是邻国的难民运动的连锁效应？

6.可扩展性。使用你的模型，展开危机更大的规模 - 由10倍是否有你的模型是不扩展到人口较多的特点？哪些參数模型中的改变或变得无关紧要时的危机添加的范围显着？别新的參数须要被加入？这是怎样添加对解决难民安置所须要的时间？假设难民融入的分辨率显著延长，能够维持难民和当地居民的健康和安全产生什么样的新问题？什么是时间的阈值，这些新的因素在起作用？比如。什么样的政策必须到位。以管理问题，如疾病控制，生育和教育？

报告：联合国难民事务委员会已要求您的ICM-RUN团队为他们提供一个20 - 页的报告是考虑在给定的任务的因素。每一个团队也应该写1页政策建议函将由联合国秘书长和迁移的首席读取。