1-The next outbreak we're not ready

When I was a kid | the disaster we worried about most | was a nuclear war.

[wen aɪ wəz ə kɪd]  [dɪˈzæstər]

kid的d轻读，

That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water.

[ˈbærəl]

When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down，and eat out of that barrel.

[əˈtæk keɪm]

attack的k音吞音，所以要留一拍停顿

be supposed to do     应当，应该

hunker down  蹲坐

hunker [ˈhʌŋkər] 蹲下;保守主义者

Today, the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesn't look like this.

Instead, it looks like this.

[ɪnˈsted]

inside [ˌɪnˈsaɪd]

If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.

Not missiles, but microbes.

[ˈmɪsəlz]               [ˈmaɪˌkroʊbz]

Now part of the reason for this is that we have invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents.

a huge amount [ə hjuːdʒ əˈmaʊnt]  数量巨大的

deterrents  [dɪˈtɜrənts]  威慑力量

Deterrence [dɪˈtɜːrəns]  ns 发 ‘次’   威慑;威慑力

But we have actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic.

We're not ready for the next epidemic.

Let's look at Ebola.

I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper.  Lots of tough Challenges.

I followed it carefully.

I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools.

I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools（we use to track polio eradication）.

eradication [ɪˌrædɪˈkeɪʃn]  根除，消除

And as you look at what went on,  the problem wasn't that there was a system that doesn't work well enough. The problem was that we didn't have a system at all.

[ən əz]                                             [ˈprɑːbləm]                                     [ˈsɪstəm]

In fact, there is some pretty obvious key missing pieces.

[ˈprɪti]   [ˈɑːbviəs]

We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go,   who would have gone,  seen what the disease was,  seen how far it had spread.

[ˌepɪˌdiːmi'ɒlədʒɪsts]                   [dɪˈziːz]

The case reports came in on paper.

[keɪm]

病例报告以纸质形式出现。

It was very delayed before they were put online. And they were extremely inaccurate.

[dɪˈleɪd]  [ɪnˈækjərət]

We didn't have a medical team ready to go.

We didn't have a way of preparing people.

[prɪˈperɪŋ]

Now, Medicins Sans frontieres did a great job orchestrating volunteers.

[ˈɔːrkɪstreɪtɪŋ]

Medicins Sans Frontieres 无国界医生;人道主义组织无国界医生  法语

Medicine [ˈmedɪsn]  医学，药

sans [sænz]  prep. 无;没有

frontiers [frənˈtɪrz] 国界，边界

orchestrating  [ˈɔːrkɪstreɪtɪŋ]  密谋，精心安排，组织

But even so, we were far slower than we would have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries.

even so 即便如此

these  [ðiːz]

And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers.

[lɑːrdʒ]

There was no one there to look at treatment approaches.

treatment approaches  [ˈtriːtmənt əˈproʊtʃɪz]

treatment 治疗

approaches

v. (在距离或时间上)靠近，接近;接洽;建议;要求;(在数额、水平或质量上)接近
n. (待人接物或思考问题的)方式，方法，态度;(距离和时间上的)靠近，接近;接洽;建议;要求

No one to look at the diagnostics.

diagnostics [ˌdaɪəɡˈnɑːstɪkz]  诊断学

No one to figure out what tools we should be used.

As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it,  and put that plasma back in people to protect them.

processed  [prəˈsest]

protest 反对 抗议

protect 保护

plasma [ˈplæzmə] 血浆;等离子体

But that was never tried.

[traɪd]

So there was a lot that was missing.

And  these things are really a global failure.

[ðiːz]

The WHO is founded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about.

monitor   [ˈmɑːnɪtər]

money [ˈmʌni]

Now, in the movies, it's quite different.

There is a group of handsome  epidemiologists ready to go,   They move in. They saved the day. But that's just pure hollywood.

save [seɪv]

hollywood [ˈhɑːliwʊd]

saved the day 化险为夷

The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be more dramatically more devastating than Ebola.

failure  [ˈfeɪljər]

allow  [əˈlaʊ]

dramatically  [drə'mætɪkli] 戏剧地;显著地

devastating [ˈdevəsteɪtɪŋ] 破坏性极大的;毁灭性的;令人震惊的;

Let's look at the progression of Ebola over this year.

over this year 今年以来

Over 10000 people died and nearly all were in the three west African countries.

There is a 3 reasons why it didn't spread more.     The first reason is that there was a lot of heroic work by health workers.

heroic [həˈroʊɪk]  英勇的;英雄的

口语学习和听力学习那个更重要？

观点一：

在没有语境的情况下，进行口语学习效果可能不会太好

观点二：

小孩刚学话的时候并不懂话是什么意思，但是他们是先会说，然后才慢慢懂自己说的是什么意思

这说明：口语更具有行动性，听力是慢慢影响和熏陶的

手机端讯飞麦克风 + 电脑端讯飞PC版 (纠音) + 轻听英语app + practice makes perfect

And as you look at where we are.