kddcup2015,二分类，课程逃课预测。写了好久了，突然想起简单整理一下，以备后需。

step1，预处理，利用numpy和pandas库，数值化特征，简单而优雅

#!/usr/bin/env python

# coding=utf-8

import pickle

import pandas as pd

import numpy as np

source_dict={'server':0,'browser':1}

event_dict = {"problem":5,"video":3,"access":1,"wiki":4,"discussion":6,"navigate":2,"page_close":0}

def gen_time_dict():

    rng = pd.date_range('2013-10-27','2014-08-01')

    time_dict = pd.Series(np.arange(len(rng)),index=rng)

    fw = open('data/time_dict.csv','w')

    pickle.dump(time_dict,fw)

    return time_dict

def gen_courseid_dict():

    df = pd.read_csv('data/date.csv',usecols=[0])

    course_map = pd.factorize(df.course_id)[1]

    course_dict = dict(zip(course_map,range(len(course_map))))

    fw = open('data/course_idTrain2.csv','w')

    pickle.dump(course_dict,fw)

    print "course_dict done"

    return course_dict

def gen_object_dict():

    df = pd.read_csv('data/log_train.csv',usecols=[4])

    obj_map = pd.factorize(df.object)[1]

    obj_dict = dict(zip(obj_map,range(len(obj_map))))

    df2 = pd.read_csv('data/test/log_test.csv',usecols=[4])

    obj_map2 = pd.factorize(df2.object)[1]

    diff = [w for w in obj_map2 if w not in obj_map]

    obj_dict2 =dict(zip(diff,np.arange(len(obj_map),len(obj_map)+len(diff))))

    obj_dict.update(obj_dict2)

    fw = open('data/object_pkl.csv','w')

    pickle.dump(obj_dict,fw)

    print "obj_dict done.."

    return obj_dict

def time_map(x):

    x = x[:10]

    return time_dict[x]

def obj_map(x):

    return obj_dict[x]

def course_map(x):

    return course_dict[x]

time_dict = gen_time_dict()

course_dict= gen_courseid_dict()

obj_dict= gen_object_dict()

def log_trainData():

    print "read log_train.csv "

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/log_train.csv',converters={1:time_map,4:obj_map})

    print df1.head()

    df1.source = df1.source.map(lambda x:source_dict[x])

    df1.event = df1.event.map(lambda x:event_dict[x])

    print df1.head()

    print df1.tail()

    df1.to_csv('data/log_trainData.csv',index=False)

def course_Data():

    df2 = pd.read_csv('data/enrollment_train.csv',usecols=[0,2],converters={2:course_map})

    df3 = pd.read_csv('data/date.csv',converters={0:course_map,1:time_map,2:time_map})

    df4 = pd.merge(df2,df3,on='course_id',how='outer')

    df4 = df4.sort_index(by='enrollment_id')

    print df4.tail(10)

    df4.to_csv("data/course_Trainpkl.csv",index=False)

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/test/enrollment_test.csv',usecols=[0,2],converters={2:course_map})

    df4 = pd.merge(df1,df3)

    df4 = df4.sort_index(by='enrollment_id')

    print df4.tail(10)

    df4.to_csv("data/test/course_Testpkl.csv",index=False)

def log_testData():

    print "read log_test.csv "

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/test/log_test.csv',converters={1:time_map,4:obj_map})

    print df1.tail(10)

    df1.source = df1.source.map(lambda x:source_dict[x])

    df1.event = df1.event.map(lambda x:event_dict[x])

    print df1.tail(10)

    df1.to_csv('data/test/log_testData.csv',index=False)

log_trainData()

log_testData()

course_Data()

2. 使用各种机器学习方法进行建模，预测

#!/usr/bin/env python

# coding=utf-8

import numpy as np

import pandas as pd

from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier

from sklearn import preprocessing

from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score

from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split

from sklearn.grid_search import GridSearchCV

from sklearn.svm import SVC

import pickle

debug=True

if debug:

    N=5000

else:

    N = 20000

class DropOutPredict(object):

    course_dict={}

    def __init__(self):

        print "welcom kdd2015 contest, jkmiao@526588996"

        fr = open("data/coursePkl.pkl")

        self.course_dict = pickle.load(fr)

    def datestr2num(s):

        return pd.to_datetime(s)

    def norm_res(self,x):

        if x<0.0001:

            x=0

        elif x>0.98:

            x=1.0

        return x

    def norm_course(self,c):

        return self.course_dict[c]

    def loadTrainData(self):

        df1 = pd.read_csv('./data/log_train.csv',usecols=[0,2,3,4])

        df1.source=pd.factorize(df1.source)[0]

        df1.event=pd.factorize(df1.event)[0]

        df1.object=pd.factorize(df1.object)[0]

        gp = df1.groupby("enrollment_id")

        gp2 = df1.groupby(["enrollment_id","source"])

        df2 = pd.read_csv('data/enrollment_train.csv',usecols=[2])

        df2.course_id=pd.factorize(df2.course_id)[0]

        df3 = pd.read_csv('data/truth_train.csv',usecols=[1],names=["drop"])

        data = df1.pivot_table("source",rows="enrollment_id",cols="event",aggfunc="count",fill_value=0)

        data["browser"] = gp2.event.count().unstack()[0]

        data["server"] = gp2.event.count().unstack()[1]

        data["course_id"]=df2.course_id

        data["cnt"] = gp.event.count()

        data["std"] = gp.object.std()

        data["var"] =gp.event.var()

        data["mean"] =gp.event.mean()

        data = data.fillna(0)

        print data.head()

        X = data.values

        y = np.ravel(df3["drop"])

        return X,y

    def loadTestData(self):

        df1 = pd.read_csv('data/test/log_test.csv',usecols=[0,2,3,4])

        df1.source = pd.factorize(df1.source)[0]

        df1.event = pd.factorize(df1.event)[0]

        df1.object = pd.factorize(df1.object)[0]

        gp = df1.groupby("enrollment_id")

        gp2 = df1.groupby(["enrollment_id","source"])

        df2 = pd.read_csv("data/test/enrollment_test.csv",usecols=[2])

        df2.course_id = pd.factorize(df2.course_id)[0]

        data = df1.pivot_table("source",rows="enrollment_id",cols="event",aggfunc="count",fill_value=0)

        data["browser"] = gp2.event.count().unstack()[0]

        data["server"] = gp2.event.count().unstack()[1]

        data["course_id"] = df2.course_id

        data["cnt"] = gp.event.count()

        data["std"] = gp.object.std()

        data["var"] = gp.event.var()

        data["mean"] = gp.event.mean()

        data = data.fillna(0)

        print "test data head():...\n",data.head()

        test = data.values

        return test

    def gbdt_clf(self,x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test):

        clf = GradientBoostingClassifier(n_estimators=450,learning_rate=0.1,random_state=20)

        clf.fit(x_train,y_train)

        y_pred = clf.predict_proba(x_test)[:,1]

        scores = roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred)

        print "gbdt_clf  scores ... ",scores

        pred = clf.predict_proba(test)[:,1]

        print pred[:5]

        self.saveResult(pred,"data/test/gbdt_clf.csv")

    def svc_clf(self,x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test):

        tuned_parameters = [{'kernel':['poly'],'C':[10,500,1200]},

                            {'kernel':['linear'],'C':[200,500,800]}]

        clf = GridSearchCV(SVC(probability=True),tuned_parameters,cv=5,scoring="roc_auc")

        # clf = svm.SVC(C=2.0,kernel="rbf",probability=True,random_state=42)

        clf.fit(x_train,y_train)

        print "Best parameters set found : "

        print clf.best_params_

        y_pred = clf.predict_proba(x_test)[:,1]

        scores = roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred)

        print "svm clf scores...",scores

        pred = clf.predict_proba(test)[:,1]

        self.saveResult(pred,"data/test/svc_res"+str(scores)+".csv")

        return pred[:5]

    def saveResult(self,pred,fileName):

        enrollment_test = pd.read_csv('./data/test/enrollment_test.csv',usecols=[0])

        enrollment_test['drop'] = pred

        res = enrollment_test[['enrollment_id','drop']];

        print "***"*30

        print res.head()

        res.to_csv(fileName,index=False,header=False)

    def drop_predict(self):

        print "loading train data..."

        X,y = self.loadTrainData()

        x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size=0.23,random_state=20)

        print "loading test data..."

        test = self.loadTestData()

        print "moding gbdt_clf..."

        self.gbdt_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test)

        x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size=0.2,random_state=28)

        print "moding svm_clf ..."

        self.svc_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test)

    def em_result(self):

       print "ensemable results..."

       df_gbdt = pd.read_csv("data/test/gbdt_res.csv",header=None,names=["id","drop1"])

       df_svm = pd.read_csv("data/test/svc_res.csv",header=None,usecols=[1],names=["id","drop2"])

       # df_knn = pd.read_csv("data/test/knn_res.csv",header=None,usecols=[1],names=["id","drop3"])

       # df_ex1 = pd.read_csv("data/test/gbdt_clf0.861831055542.csv",header=None,usecols=[1],names=["drop4"])

       # df_ex2 = pd.read_csv("data/test/gbdt_clf0.863249041131.csv",header=None,usecols=[1],names=["drop5"])

       # final result

       # df = pd.concat([df_gbdt,df_svm,df_knn,df_ex1,df_ex2],axis=1)

       # df["drop"] = df["drop1"]*0.4+df["drop2"]*0.2+df["drop3"]*0.2+df["drop4"]*0.1+df["drop5"]*0.1

       df = pd.concat([df_gbdt,df_svm],axis=1)

       df["drop"] = df.drop1*0.7+df.drop2*0.3

       df["drop"] = map(lambda x:self.norm_res(x),df["drop"])

       print df.head()

       # df.drop(["drop1","drop2","drop3","drop4","drop5"],axis=1,inplace=True)

       df.drop(["drop1","drop2"],axis=1,inplace=True)

       print df.head()

       df.to_csv("data/test/em_res.csv",header=False,index=False)

if __name__ == '__main__':

    drop = DropOutPredict()

    drop.drop_predict()

    drop.em_result()

    print "done."  # 准确率召回率AOC值可达84%左右

3， 继续特征工程，加强提取特征，AOC值接近89%

#!/usr/bin/env python

# coding=utf-8

import numpy as np

import pandas as pd

import cPickle as pickle

from sklearn import svm

from sklearn import linear_model

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier

from sklearn.preprocessing import scale

from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split

from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score

def norm( x ):

    if x<0.000001:

        x=0

    elif x>0.96:

        x=1

    return x

def last_time(x):

    return x.max()-x.min()

def loadTrainData():

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/log_trainData.csv')

    print df1.head()

    print df1.tail()

    df2 = pd.read_csv('data/truth_train.csv',header=None,usecols=[1],names=["drop"])

    df3 = pd.read_csv('data/course_Trainpkl.csv',usecols=[1,2,3])

    gp = df1.groupby("enrollment_id")

    data = df1.pivot_table("source",rows='enrollment_id',cols="event",aggfunc='count',fill_value=0)

    eventdf = gp.event.describe().unstack()

    timedf = gp.time.describe().unstack()

    timedf.drop('count',axis=1)

    sourcedf = gp.source.describe().unstack()

    sourcedf.drop(['count','min','max'],axis=1)

    objectdf = gp.object.describe().unstack()

    objectdf.drop(['count'],axis=1)

    # 并连"特征表"

    data = pd.concat([data,eventdf],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,timedf],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,sourcedf],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,objectdf],axis=1)

    # 课程特征，持续时间，id号，从？天到？天

    data['dtime'] = gp.time.apply(last_time)

    data["course_id"] = df3["course_id"].values

    data["from"] = df3["from"].values

    data["to"] = df3["to"].values

    # 最大最小值规范化，并未什么提升

    # X = MinMaxScaler().fit_transform(X)

    print "origin data: "

    print data.tail()

    data = data.fillna(0)

    data.to_csv('data/trainData.csv',index=False)

    X = data.values

    # 去均值后规范化

    X = scale(X)

    # fw = open("data/train/trainData.pkl",'w')

    # pickle.dump(X,fw)

    y = np.ravel(df2['drop'])

    print "y: ",y[:5]

    return X,y

def loadTestData():

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/test/log_testData.csv')

    print df1.head()

    df3 = pd.read_csv('data/test/course_Testpkl.csv',usecols=[1,2,3])

    gp = df1.groupby("enrollment_id")

    data = df1.pivot_table("source",rows='enrollment_id',cols="event",aggfunc='count',fill_value=0)

    eventdf = gp.event.describe().unstack()

    timedf = gp.time.describe().unstack()

    timedf.drop('count',axis=1)

    sourcedf = gp.source.describe().unstack()

    sourcedf.drop(['count','min','max'],axis=1)

    objectdf = gp.object.describe().unstack()

    objectdf.drop(['count'],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,eventdf],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,timedf],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,sourcedf],axis=1)

    data = pd.concat([data,objectdf],axis=1)

    data['dtime'] = gp.time.apply(last_time)

    data["course_id"] = df3["course_id"].values

    data["from"] = df3["from"].values

    data["to"] = df3["to"].values

    # data["cnt"]=gp.size()

    # data["eventstd"] = gp.event.std()

    # data['eventmean'] = gp.event.mean()

    # data['eventmdeian'] = gp.event.median()

    # data['equantile0.25'] = gp.event.quantile(0.25)

    # data['equantile0.75'] = gp.event.quantile(0.75)

    # data['equantilemad'] = gp.event.mad()

    print "test data: "

    print data.tail(10)

    data = data.fillna(0)

    # 写入文件，以备后需，直接读取

    data.to_csv('data/test/testData.csv',index=False)

    # 也可以直接生成序列化文件

    # fw = open("data/test/testData.pkl",'w')

    # pickle.dump(data,fw)

    test = data.values

    # test = MinMaxScaler().fit_transform(test)

    test = scale(test)

    return test

def svc_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test):

    clf = svm.SVC(kernel='linear',probability=True,random_state=42)

    clf.fit(x_train,y_train)

    y_pred= clf.predict_proba(x_test)[:,1]

    scores = roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred) # 必须test值写在前面，否则报错

    print "svm scores:...",scores

    pred = clf.predict_proba(test)[:,1]

    saveResult(pred,'data/test/svc_res.csv')

def lr_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test):

    clf = linear_model.LogisticRegression()

    clf.fit(x_train,y_train)

    y_pred = clf.predict_proba(x_test)[:,1]

    scores= roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred)

    print "lr_clf scores: ",scores

    y_pred = map(norm,y_pred)

    score2 = roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred)

    print "after nomailzied score ... ",score2

    pred = clf.predict_proba(test)[:,1]

    saveResult(pred,'data/test/lr_res.csv')

def rf_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test):

    clf = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100)

    clf.fit(x_train,x_train)

    y_pred = clf.predict_proba(x_test)[:,1]

    scores = roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred)

    pred = clf.predict(test)[:,1]

    print "rf_scores: ",scores

    saveResult(pred,'./data/test/rf_res.csv')

def  gbdt_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test):

    clf = GradientBoostingClassifier(n_estimators=500)

    clf.fit(x_train,y_train)

    y_pred=clf.predict_proba(x_test)[:,1]

    scores = roc_auc_score(y_test,y_pred)

    pred = clf.predict_proba(test)[:,1]

    print "gbdt_clf scores: ",scores

    saveResult(pred,'data/test/gbdt_clf'+str(scores)+'.csv')

def saveResult(pred,fileName):

    # 获取用户id号

    df = pd.read_csv('data/test/enrollment_test.csv',usecols=[0])

    # 加上预测值

    df['drop'] = pred

    print df.head()

    # 写入提交文件

    df.to_csv(fileName,index=False,header=False)

# 将较好的几个结果ensemble一下

def em_res():

    df = pd.read_csv("data/test/gbdt_res.csv",header=None,names=["id","drop"])

    df1 = pd.read_csv("data/test/gbdt_clf0.875919444048.csv",header=None,usecols=[1],names=["drop1"])

    df2 = pd.read_csv("data/test/final_res.csv",header=None,usecols=[1],names=["drop2"])

    df["drop"]  =df["drop"]*0.5+ df1["drop1"]*0.2+df2["drop2"]*0.3

    df["drop"] = df["drop"]

    df.to_csv("data/test/final_res.csv",index=None,header=None)

# 后续使用时，直接读取，加快速度

def loadPickleTrainData():

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/trainData.csv')

    print df1.head()

    X = df1.values

    # X = scale(X)

    fr2 = open("data/train/trainLabel.txt")

    y = pickle.load(fr2)

    return X,y

def loadPickleTestData():

    df1 = pd.read_csv('data/test/testData.csv')

    test = df1.values

    # test = scale(test)

    return test

def dropPredict():

    em_res()

    print "loading train data..."

    X,y = loadPickleTrainData()

    # X,y = loadTrainData()

    print "loading test data... "

    test = loadPickleTestData()

    # test = loadTestData()

    print "\nmodeling lr..."

    x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size=0.31,random_state=148)

    lr_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test)

    x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size=0.28,random_state=151)

    print "\nmodeling rf..."

    # rf_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test)

    print "\nmodeling gbdt..."

    gbdt_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test)

    print "\nmodeling svm..."

    svc_clf(x_train,x_test,y_train,y_test,test)

if __name__ =="__main__":

    print "start>>>"

    dropPredict()

    print "done"

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